An analysis of the CWC at this stage

The Cricket World Cup is drawing to a close. We are nearing the end of the super eights and the semifinals await us.

Let us look at the possible semifinalists

At this moment the table looks like

Australia 10 points ( 5 games)

New Zealand 10 points ( 6 games)

Sri Lanka 8 points ( 5 games)

South Africa 8 points ( 6 games)

England 4 points ( 5 games)

Note that I have taken the group games into consideration too.

By winning yesterday’s game, New Zealand have pulled themselves out of a potentially difficult mess. ¬†Australia and New Zealand are guaranteed semifinal spots.

Sri Lanka’s games to come are against Ireland and Australia. Let us assume that they beat Ireland but lose to Australia. They are also through.

New Zealand have one game in hand- they lose to Australia.

This means that the South Africa- England game on the 17th effectively determines the fourth semifinalist. If South Africa lose to England, then they will have to wait for the result of the England- WI game, which also happens to be the last game of the super eights. The criteria, when both the teams are tied on points, happens to be the number of wins against other super eight teams- throughout the competition. If that is equal, then it goes to net run rate.

If England lose, then their game against the Windies is purely of academic interest. Also take into account that South Africa have a negative run rate.

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